End of Game Execution

Over the weekend, I tweeted about late game execution in the NBA versus the NCAA. It seemed like this weekend especially, coaches were unable to help their teams execute down the stretch to win close games. We saw this in the Michigan-Michigan State game, but also in many games across the country. The two I picked out were both games tied at the end of regulation with the shot clock off. In these games, Villanova and Northern Arizona were unable to get a solid shot off and both games went into overtime.

In the NBA, the Nuggets beat the Thunder this weekend on a Ty Lawson buzzer beater. I also remembered a play in a Spurs-Cavs game from a few weeks ago where the Spurs were equally as effective in late game execution getting an open Kawhi Leonard three for the win.

I broke down these plays to get a look at what NCAA coaches are doing wrong. In Sunday's Villanova-Pittsburgh game, Jay Wright drew up a high pick and roll for Ryan Arcidiacono. The same type of play the Spurs ran for Tony Parker. Take a look at the spacing for the Spurs compared to Villanova.

The Spurs leave the paint completely open and surround the arc with three point shooters. The three Cavs players not directly involved in the pick and roll have to respect the player they are guarding and can't help on Parker. When Parker gets into the lane, Dion Waiters is forced to make a decision to either stop the ball or stop Kawhi Leonard in the corner. He really didn't do either, and Leonard nailed the three.

On the other hand, Arcidiacono has nowhere to go for Villanova. He is driving hard left right into the Pittsburgh defender on the block. The play had very little chance from the start of getting a good look.

Northern Arizona had similar spacing problems in their end of game play against Weber State. They elected not to take a timeout and drove towards the hoop, but right into a congested area.

Below are videos comparing the end of game execution for the two NCAA teams and the two NBA teams. The videos are annotated and are self-explanatory, but you can clearly see that NBA teams are much better prepared for theses types of the situations. The Nuggets play may have impressed me the most, because they not only set a ball screen, but they also set a clever screen on Durant who was the hedger defending the pick and roll. Sefolosha recognized the play (possibly from scouting) and did a great job of helping, but the Thunder had to perfectly defend the play in order to stop it. See the videos below:

Villanova's One Dimensional Offense

After missing the NCAA Tournament in 2012 for the first time in seven years, Jay Wright's Villanova squad was looking for a bounce back year. However, the team has struggled to a 3-3 start against D1 opponents. Off the court, the Big East has continued to decline and Villanova has largely remained silent about the situation.

Villanova's offense has ranked 98th in the country in adjusted efficiency. This is relatively impressive considering their shooting, rebounding, and turnover numbers (all in the 200's). The factor keeping Nova's offense afloat has been their ability to get to the foul line. In fact, the Wildcats rank second nationally in free throw rate (FTA/FGA).

As a cynical Villanova student and fan, I assumed the extremely high free throw was simply due to competition. Basically, I thought Nova had coincidentally played teams that foul a lot on defense. I decided to look further into this by comparing the AVERAGE free throw rate of each Villanova opponent compared to Villanova's free throw rate when they played that team. The results are shown graphically below:

The graphs above show that the Wildcat's ability to get to the line does in fact appear to be legitimate. I knew going into this research that JayVaughn Pinkston and Ryan Arcidiacono were both aggressive drivers who tend to force the issue. Stats back that up, Pinkston draws 7.6 fouls per 40 minutes (23rd in the country) and Arcidiacono draws 5.2 foul per 40 minutes (352nd in the country). More surprisingly, center Mouphtaou Yarou has been very good at getting to the line this year. After a solid junior year, Mouph was expected to have a big senior year. The knock on him by the Villanova fan base has always been his inability to go up strong. Despite this reputation, he gets to the line quite a bit. The final player getting to the line often for Nova has been Maurice Sutton (albeit in limited minutes). Why teams would foul Sutton I'm not sure. Sutton is known for his defense, but doesn't have much of an offensive game in the post.

Obviously a team like Villanova that gets to the line so frequently is heavily affected by their ability to actually make the free throws. This season, Villanova has shot 71% from the line (the NCAA average is 69%). That coming off a great season from the line last year where the Wildcats shot a very high 75.4%. Currently, Nova is making 22 free throws per game. I wanted to look at the affect of FT% on points and ultimately on wins. I looked at FT%'s between 65% and 77% and how that would affect Nova's expected wins in these first six games and for the rest of the season (using pythag expectation):

The Wildcats are currently projected to 14-16 on the season given their 71% foul shooting. However, at 74% they would be projected to crack the .500 barrier and at 67% they would be projected to go 12-18. Coaches love to stress the importance of free throws. Jay Wright would have a legitimate point, because of how frequently his squad finds themselves at the charity stripe.

Weekend Watch

I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving, had some family time, watched football and of course some college basketball.
This is our first Weekend Watch post of the year. We are excited to bring you the fan some interesting and engaging content throughout the course of the year.
This past week featured some of the most entertaining games of the non-conference portion of the schedule. This weekend is a relatively light weekend.

Big East: 2010-11 Preview

A team to review from last year:
Marquette

Once upon a time there was a team who graduated Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, and Dominic James. They weren't supposed to be good. They ended up being good. The end. This story has been on replay since Buzz Williams's team emerged as a contender in the Big East last season. Marquette had a great offense and a pretty good defense. They made shots and didn't turn the ball over. They played in many close games. 17 games were decided by five points or less. The Eagles went 8-9 in those games. Ultimately, they lost an 80-78 battle to Washington in the first round of the Dance.

Once upon a time there was a team who graduated Lazar Hayward, Maurice Acker, and David Cubillan. They weren't supposed to be good (ranked 10th in Big East here). Sounds familiar, right? It will be tough to duplicate last year for Marquette, but I'm not picking against them.


A flaw to consider...
Villanova's fouling

This is not breaking news. Even your little sister knows Villanova fouled way too much last year. Scottie Reynolds was the best on the team at not fouling last year. Without Scottie, the problem is certainly not going to get any better without working on it. Mouph Yarou, Maurice Sutton, and Isaiah Armwood are three young big men who could be called upon to produce more this season. All three, however, showed they too like to foul when in the game. Villanova will know doubt be good, but will continue to beat (foul?) a dead horse.


A team that will get more attention than their body of work merits...
UConn

The Huskies got a lot of attention last year for an 18-16 team. ESPN seemed to have them perpetually right on the bubble because of their reputation. Regardless, UConn played solid defense last season. They will likely be worse on defense this season. Calhoun did not use his bench very often and now he has a lot of inexperienced (yet talented) players. With Dyson, Robinson, and Edwards all lost to graduation, it seems like a rebuilding year is probable. Ater Majok, however, will not be part of the process.


A team that will get less attention then their body of work merits...
Seton Hall

The Pirates could score with ease last year. There really is no reason to think that will change this year. Hazell, Theodore, and Robinson are all back with ORtg's well over 100. Seton Hall will be one of the top teams in the Big East when it comes to putting the ball through the hoop. An improved defense would carry the Pirates into the NCAA Tourney. Whether they can improve or not is the million dollar question. Mississippi transfer, Eniel Polynice, should help the defense to some extent. Seton Hall is certainly a team with a high degree of variance, but could turn themselves into Big East contenders in a perfect world.


PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Tim Abromaitis, Notre Dame

Picking out the top five players, let alone the top player, in a league this good and deep is brutal. Still, someone has to win. In the case Abromaitis's 2009-10 season was too good to ignore. He was one of the best shooters in the nation and didn't turn the ball over. No one can reasonably expect another 127.8 ORtg as the complete go-to guy this season, but he should once again be one of the most efficient scorers in the country. Cases could be made for about ten other guys to win this "award". Tim, make us proud.

Best of the Rest:

1) Corey Fisher, Villanova
2) Jimmy Butler, Marquette
3) Austin Freeman, Georgetown
4) Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall
5) D.J. Kennedy, St. Johns
6) Kevin Jones, West Virginia
7) Ashton Gibbs, Pittsburgh
8) Scoop Jardine, Syracuse


BREAKOUT PLAYER: Maalik Wayns, Villanova

Wayns showed a lot of promise in his freshman season for the Wildcats. The 6'1" rookie shot 49% from two, 32% from three, and 81% from the foul line. Turnovers bothered Wayns some. He turned the ball over just over 1/5 of possessions. Wayns was a big part of the Nova offense when he was in the game. He had a %Poss of 23.3 and an ORtg of 102.8. A big chunk of Scottie Reynolds' minutes will presumably go to Wayns. He showed last season that he can compete in the Big East. Most importantly, he has plenty of room for improvement. Wayns is an excellent breakout candidate entering his sophomore season.

Best of the Rest:

1. Casey Mitchell, West Virginia (18.5 %Min, 102.8 ORtg, 24.3 %Poss)
2. Dominic Cheek, Villanova (33.5 %Min, 109.9 ORtg, 18.2 %Poss)
3. Mookie Jones, Syracuse (12.8 %Min, 118.2 ORtg, 22.4 %Poss)
4. Dalton Pepper, West Virginia (14.8 %Min, 112.5 ORtg, 20.3 %Poss)
5. Augustus Gilchrist, South Florida (38.1 %Min, 104.8 ORtg, 25.3 %Poss)**

**Gilchrist missed significant time last season due to injury.

Tiered rankings sure to be wrong: